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New Utah poll shows Ted Cruz with commanding lead

Ted Cruz speaks at a rally in Provo Saturday, March 19.

Ted Cruz speaks at a rally in Provo Saturday, March 19.

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah may be poised to give Texas Senator Ted Cruz his most decisive win of the 2016 elections, according to a poll of likely Utah Republican Caucus goers conducted by Y2 Analytics.

In the poll, conducted between March 17th and 19th, Cruz has 53 percent support, followed by Ohio Governor John Kasich with 29 percent.

National frontrunner, businessman Donald Trump, scores a distant third place with 11 percent support.

“The thing to watch for is Utah’s 50 percent rule,” said Quin Monson, a founding partner at Y2 Analytics.

Utah’s Republican Caucus rules assign delegates proportionally according to each candidates vote total, with one big exception. If a candidate gets a majority of the total, they get every delegate.

“Ted Cruz is the only candidate showing the potential to get more than 50 percent of the vote in Utah,” Monson said.

Monson says the poll results show the potential for Cruz to tie up all 40 of Utah’s delegates.

The poll also asked voters how likely they were to attend a caucus, and Cruz lead more strongly among those saying they were “very likely” to attend, with 57 percent support.

The poll also shows 81 percent of Utah Republicans believe their party is on the wrong track, and 64 percent believe nominating Trump will weaken the party.

The last publicly available poll was taken from February 10th to the 15th for UtahPolicy.com. That was before the South Carolina primary, when Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, and Jeb Bush were still actively campaigning. Cruz also had a lead then, but the divided field gave him 22 percent support among Republicans followed closely by Rubio and Trump.

In the national race for the Republican nomination, Donald Trump has a clear lead making it probable he will finish he primary season with more delegates than anyone else, but he has to win 1,237 delegates in order to win the nomination without a fight at the Republican National Convention.

Ted Cruz has topped all other candidates in seven states and Guam in 2016 so far.

Texas, Cruz’ home state, was his most decisive victory, gaining 104 of the state’s 155 Republican delegates.

Aside from the Lone Star State, the most Cruz has taken from any contest was 27 delegates, which he gained from taking 2nd place in North Carolina.

Monson and Scott Riding, with Y2, say voters may choose to be strategic at the March 22nd caucuses.

“For him to break 50 percent in the caucuses, he needs undecided voters and Kasich supporters to break his way,” Riding said.

The Y2 Analytics poll has a margin of error of +-4.38%.

66 comments

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  • Michael Hulsey

    Cruz needs to drop out if he cares at all about a brokered convention. If he doesn’t win the nomination with the most delegates, then he will never win the general election if he is chosen over Donald, who is the only person who could beat him now.

    At this point, it’s 99% clear that Donald Trump will have the most delegates (even if he lacks a majority). If he loses the nomination despite this it is very, very likely his supporters will be enraged and will sit at home on general election day. Cruz cannot win even if he gets the nomination, if it’s at the expense of a Donald who has more delegates.

    • Donna Ableman

      Spot on, Michael. There is no way that Cruz is going to gain enough delegates. All he is doing at this point is forcing a brokered convention and we’re going to be stuck with Kasich and more of the same crap that we’ve been dealing with all along.

    • william

      Amen I will not vote for anyone but Trump if they steal it from Trump let the GOP be dammed. but if Trump is beaten fairly I will be happy to vote CRUZ

  • Pieter Samara

    Right
    The treason reason Cruz is media projected 50%, while independent polls say an even split is that the online voting first in the nation is owned by Soros. So the fix is in. This they have to match the polling to the fake vote.

  • Donna

    I cannot believe the lies Glenn Beck and Ted Cruz are Throwing Utah! TED Cruz is a Souther Baptist Glenn and Mitt are suppose to be Mormons and I have not seen them portray themselves that way on national tv!! YET THERE’S AN ARTICLE STATING TED CRUZ IS UTAH SAVIOR.??   I’m sorry but if you look up the differences in southern baptist and mormon belie lies you get, Southern Baptists believe Mormonism’s founder, Joseph Smith, to be a false prophet. I hope that Utah voters are NOT that gullable!

    Glenn Beck and Mitt Romney are Begging for votes by lying to Utah, I really hope the people of Utah can see this tommorrow!
    And to top it all off Cruz uses The LDS Temple in Salt lake on his vote for Ted Cruz signs, This has gone way way across the line of lie!  This is what we have been watching the whole race with ted (ralphael) cruz campaign!

    Thank You for your Time, I’m voting Trump!

    Ted Cruz WHO R U
     
    CFR (COUNSEL ON FOREIGN RELATION) = NWO (EXTENSION OF NEW WORLD ORDER)

    GLOBALIST = NEW WORLD ORDER

     Heidi Cruz part of the CFR, council Foreign Relations- extension of new world order, works with Condoleezza in the whitehouse.  Their goal is the combine US, Mexican, Canada into one Government, northern community!!

    “The main purpose of the Council on Foreign Relations is promoting the disarmament of U.S. sovereignty and national independence and submergence into an all powerful one world government.”

     *

    http://tomatobubble.com/id953.html

     http://freedomoutpost.com/ted-cruz-henry-kissinger-globalists/

    Let us not forget,
     http://www.ryot.org/opinion-ted-cruz-is-the-most-dangerous-man-in-america/423753

    Ted pathologist lying,
     https://youtu.be/zwIHJhtTSLg

    Time for Reublicans and democrats alike to join toget her for the GREATER CAUSE TO BEAT HILLARY!
    VOTE. TRUMP 2016!
    Must see! This below!
     http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2016/03/breaking-new-trump-scandal-devastating-info-released-video-alex-jones-3322385.html

  • freewilltwo

    Some of the Protesters are Muslims against Trump,In Chicago they wore shirts that said that, Ted Cruz Blamed Trump for the violence, Muslims against Trump Blocked Ambulances and Cruz spoke out against Trump…Cruz hired on Neil Bush to his financial team, Cruz was on the George Bush 2000 campaign team…Cruz is bought and owned by Goldman Sachs..Are the LDS republicans so blind that they listen to propaganda put out by the likes of Romney and the rest of the wolves?

  • BOBBB669

    IT IS NOT ABOUT THE MUSLIMS OR BLM OR THE ILLEGAL MEXICANS — IT IS ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT (SEN Sanders, SEC/SEN Clinton, SEN Cruz, SEN Rubio, GOV Kasich, PRES/SEN Obama-all part of the problem) NOT DOING THEIR JOB!

    Not securing the borders
    Not vetting immigrants and refugees
    Not protecting citizens (BLM, Lead/Flint, Methane/Porter Ranch)
    Gridlock
    Not producing jobs
    Benghazi
    Iran
    North Korea

    TRUMP 2016 !

  • william

    Greetings from Florida. I hope Utah is able to see through the media blitz trying to stop Trump. The elite and the media cant stand Trump. They take sound bites to attack him. you have to ask yourself why this is. The elite have spent millions on attack ads because they know Trump will not play there game or be there hand puppet Trump is truly for the middle class. and Trump has got right in the face of the dishonest media which is so use to herding the American people like sheep with there propaganda that pushes there agenda. Please Utah join the middle class movement and vote TRUMP. Thanks Utah

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