Political Prediction Market: Donald Trump’s nomination odds sink as Ted Cruz surges

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File: Donald Trump and Ted Cruz at a debate.

By Gregory Krieg


(CNN) — A strong Super Saturday performance has given Ted Cruz a big boost in CNN’s Political Prediction Market, while Donald Trump has seen his odds of claiming the Republican nomination drop 15% in less than 24 hours.

Powered by a combination of polling and forecasts from more than 100,000 users, the live probabilities generated by Pivit now have the brash billionaire at 63% to win the GOP nod — down from 78% before polls opened.

Cruz, who scored strong wins in the Kansas and Maine caucuses, has been the beneficiary of Trump’s woes, gaining 15% from Saturday morning to put him at 25% odds to earn the nomination.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, meanwhile, currently sits as a 6% underdog shot to upend the field.

Pivit has a partnership with CNN for users to play and predict the outcome of the 2016 election.


  • bob

    Trump is MILES ahead in Michigan, which has a population and a delegate count DOUBLE that of the two states that Cruz won, combined.

    And it gets better: The states that Cruz “won” are proportional, meaning he win delegates in proportion to the votes. So Trump still came out of them with almost as many delegates as Cruz did.

    Michigan is WINNER TAKE ALL, as long as a candidate gets at least 50% of the vote….and right now Trump is WAY above that figure. Michigan will put Cruz so far in the weeds he’ll never get a sniff again.

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