SALT LAKE CITY — New public opinion polling shows how the Utah Republican Party has divided itself into factions over President Trump, but the surveyed voters largely like their elected leaders.
The poll, conducted among registered voters earlier this month by Noble Predictive Insights, makes it clear: Utah Republicans still dominate the state's political scene.
"While the Republican Party remains dominant in Utah, internal divisions persist, reflecting the ongoing tension between traditional conservatives and the MAGA faction," pollster Mike Noble wrote in a memo with his survey. "When asked which political party they believe would do a better job running the state, Republicans won by a 30-point margin (54% to 24% for Democrats), closely aligning with the 2024 statewide House popular vote. On a generic congressional ballot, Republicans lead by 19 points."
But 44% of Republican voters identified themselves as "party-first Republicans," where 41% of them identified as "Trump first." Another 14% said neither, Noble wrote.
That emerged when Noble Predictive Insights asked views on President Trump's favorability.
"Trump has a net positive favorability rating in Utah for one simple reason: He has support from GOP voters," Noble wrote. "Almost every single “Trump-first” voter surveyed (99%) holds a favorable view of him. Trump’s support is a bit weaker, but still ultimately strong, with the party-first faction: 76% hold a favorable view of the President. Among Independents, Trump’s favorability sits at just 36%, with 61% unfavorable. And he has almost no support among Democrats (91% unfavorable) or among Republicans who don’t identify as Trump-first or Party-first (91% unfavorable)."
"A similar pattern is found in Trump’s job approval numbers – Trump-first Republicans are overwhelmingly approving of Trump’s job (98%), while Party-first Republicans are more skeptical (72%), and 'neither type' Republicans broadly disapprove (90%). Bottom line: Trump is extremely popular with his base, broadly popular with party-first Republicans, and unpopular with everyone else – and that’s enough for him to be popular in Utah," Noble wrote.
When surveyed on Governor Spencer Cox, the Noble poll found 71% of party-first Republicans viewed him favorably, compared to 63% for Trump-first Republicans. Those self-identified Republicans who were neither faction gave him 35% favorability compared to independents (45%) and Democrats (25%).
"A similar balance is found in Cox’s job approval numbers as well – Party-first Republicans are most approving (75%) with Trump-first Republicans not too far off (69%), and about one-quarter of 'neither type' Republicans (26%) approving of Cox’s job," Noble wrote.
Utah's two senators still did well among Republican voters, but it shows the differences between them. Sen. Mike Lee, who has fully embraced President Trump, had a 78% favorability rating with Trump-first Republicans and 67% favorability with party-first Republicans. His favorability rating dropped significantly with generic Republicans (19%), independents (31%) and Democrats (13%).
"On the spectrum from Mike Lee to Mitt Romney, John Curtis finds himself somewhere in the middle. Like Cox, he has neither fully embraced nor fully opposed Trump. His approval ratings sit at 74% among Party-first Republicans, 59% among Trump-first Republicans, and 38% among those identifying with neither faction. Among Democrats (20% favorable) and Independents (37%), he fares slightly better than Lee, but not as well as Romney," Noble wrote.
The poll surveyed 609 registered voters in Utah with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9%.
