PHOENIX — A new poll shows former President Donald Trump has a commanding lead over Vice-President Kamala Harris, but Utah maintains a complicated relationship with the GOP nominee.
The poll, released by Arizona-based Noble Predictive Insights on Wednesday, shows Trump has a double-digit lead over Harris in a head-to-head matchup among both registered and likely voters. Among likely voters, Trump holds a 16-point lead (54% to 38%), with 8% undecided. Registered voters show a similar trend, with Trump leading by 13 points (52% to 39%), and 9% undecided.
But in yet another sign that Trump doesn't have the same level of support even in red state Utah, a "generic Republican" performed better.
"Utah voters show an even stronger preference for a generic Republican candidate compared to Trump specifically. In a matchup between unnamed Republican and Democratic candidates, the GOP lead increases to R+25 among likely voters and R+23 among registered voters," pollster Mike Noble wrote. "This gap between Trump's performance and that of a generic Republican candidate offers a window into the complex relationship Utah voters have with the former president and the broader Republican brand."
Noble pointed out that among registered voting Republicans? 15% said they intended to support Harris over Trump, while 7% opted for a "generic congressional Democrat over a Republican."
"This suggests a specific reluctance towards Trump rather than a broader shift away from the GOP. Independent voters, crucial in any election, show an even more pronounced split. Harris captured 51% of Independents in a two-way matchup, while generic Democrats only secured 27% in the congressional ballot. This 24-point swing among independents underscores the potential volatility of this voting bloc and their nuanced views on Trump versus the Republican Party at large," Noble wrote.
In 2016, Trump performed worse than many prior Republican presidential candidates, garnering only 45% of Utahns' vote. And Latter-day Saint voters continue to exercise some influence Utah elections.
"The poll shows that LDS voters are roughly twice as likely to support Harris than they are to support a generic congressional Democrat. This disparity highlights the complex relationship between Mormon voters and Trump, a dynamic that has persisted since the 2016 election," Noble wrote.
"The urban-rural split, a common feature in national politics, is particularly stark in Utah. Trump loses in Salt Lake County, the state's most populous and home to its capital city but wins in the rest of the state. In contrast, generic Republicans lead in all four of the state's major regions: Salt Lake County, Utah County, North Rural, and South Rural. This geographic division underscores the concentration of Trump's challenges in more urban and suburban areas."
