PHOENIX — A new public opinion poll finds Governor Spencer Cox and Congressman John Curtis, seeking a U.S. Senate seat, with commanding leads over their challengers.
Noble Predictive Insights' survey, released Thursday, gave Cox a 28-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Brian King among likely voters. Cox garnered 54% compared to King's 26% with 20% undecided.
Factoring in the write-in effort by Phil Lyman, the Noble poll found him getting only 5% of likely voters, compared to 49% for Cox, 23% for King and another 19% who said they were not sure.
"Lyman could grow his support in the final weeks of this campaign. But more often than not, third-party and write-in candidates fade as the election gets closer, and voters realize their choice is between the major party nominees," David Byler, Noble Predictive Insight's chief of research, said in a statement announcing the poll results. "Some Republicans like Lyman more than Cox – but they don’t want to help a Democrat win. It would be surprising to see Lyman siphon enough votes to thwart Cox."
The polling found Cox maintains a strong favorability rating at 51%. King, in contrast, faced a problem of being perceived by the voters surveyed as an "unknown" with 24% saying they had not heard of the longtime legislator. Cox also polled higher across the state, including Salt Lake County (where he was 10% over King).
In the U.S. Senate race, Noble Predictive Insights found Republican congressman John Curtis with a lead over Democratic candidate Caroline Gleich by a two-to-one margin.
"The dynamics of party registration in Utah significantly influence this race. Currently, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by a substantial margin – 917,776 to 241,993, according to official state counts. Given that Curtis and Gleich exhibit similar levels of party loyalty, this numerical advantage enables Curtis to maintain a clear lead. Curtis also enjoys a small lead among Independent voters, though a significant 44% remain undecided," pollster Mike Noble wrote of the race.
